Everything is peaceful in Bangkapi

Disclaimer: This is just my impression

Despite the disturbing images flashing on the TV, life in Bangkapi remains calm and peaceful. I can't think of witnessing any even mildly frayed tempers in the time that I have been here - even on the road... maybe I need to get out more ;).

Protests are often associated with radicalism ... in this case the protests are distinctly reactionary. The PAD - who are a protest group not a political party - want to move to a political system where 70% of parliament is democratically elected and 30% is appointed from particular groups - business and professional groups though I am not sure whether they have actually put forward a concrete model. (Their manifesto seems vague and prone to vacillation...) It's essentially an effort to gerrymander as under the current political system the government - PPP - win convincingly based on poor rural votes - particularly in the north and north east.

People in Bangkok seem to be quite patronising about the govts rural base. The sentiment seems to be that the govt. in particular billionair, ex-PM Thaksin, has bought the votes of the rural poor. I suspect there is some substance to the accusation; however it doesn't seem to register in the consciousness of Bangkok people that people in the poorest part of the country are entitled to be well represented by government too. In the long term also increased prosperity in the regions would have to be a good thing for Bangkok business. I get the impression though that preserving historic social classes is also an issue. There is a conflict of opinion about govt assistance to the rural poor. Govt. supporters say the govt. is acting democratically because it helps the rural poor, but the PAD say that the govt. , rather than acting democratically, is perpetuating old time feudal mentality through the facade of democracy, exemplified by ex PM Thaksin giving disprortionate assistance to people in his old 'fief'. Again perhaps there is truth on both sides.

There is a perception that corruption is rampant and increasing - and I am sure it does exist, though to what extent I have no idea - compared with China it is much less obvious. The only place I have seen it is on the border, and I think it was on the Cambodian side where officials were demanding extra payment on top of the visa fee. In addition to vote buying allegations, ex PM Thaksin has been found guilty of corruption related offences pertaining to improperly profiting from land deals. The PAD accuse him of continuing to pull the strings of goverment for his own benefit. Thaksin has fled Thailand and is living as a fugitive in H.K. after the UK cancelled his residency visa but retains, and actively maintains, a high profile here. At a pro-govt. rally 2 weeks ago Thaksin called in from HK to address the crowd by telephone. In his address he said he wanted to return to Thailand, but forces in country were preventing him from doing so, and rather presumptiously implied he should be granted a royal pardon... The fact Thaksin's brother in law is now PM does nothing to aid in dispeling the perception of improper influence. In reality though it is hard to imagine that it could be possible to bribe or coerce all members of a democratically elected govt. to get their co-operation. Allegations of improper influence don't seem to be substatiated with examples as far as I can see.

The mood of the conflict is actually disturbing. The intransigence of both sides is hard to fathom. There is noone who seems to be speaking about compromise, negotiation or understanding. Both sides are looking to the army to solve the problem unilaterally. Last time - perhaps 2 years ago - when tensions rose the army stepped in and took power. So far they have refused to this time. The govt. seems to want them to step in to clear the protests. The protesters want them to stage a coup and oust the government. The coup worked 2 or 3 years back, and the army acted responisbly - handing power back after an election. This time though an election will not satisfy the protesters - because they know they can't win - but at the same time the govt. is claiming an electoral mandate and seem unlikely to resign, unless it is forced. Even if they were forced to resign, their supporters are unlikely to tolerate having a diminished role in the political process.

In most countries the PADs protests would not be tolerated - they have occupied govt. offices for months, forcing the govt. to relocate premises.... (I can't imagine the Aus. govt. allowing protesters to occupy the offices at Parliament House for months..... ) and now have effectively shut Suvarnabumi (international) airport. The reason the PAD have been able to go on protesting the way they have is apparently because they have high level backing. The Queen's presence at the funeral of a PAD protester killed in the protests has given credence to the PAD claim that they have the support of the royals.

The high level backing is evident in the news reporting - though I am only seeing reports in the English language media. The Bangkok post has been firmly on the side of the PAD, though from today's media reports occupying the airport might have taken it too far. (Its quite interesting how people's perceptions change once their convenience is infringed upon...) The footage of a PAD supporter firing a pistol at govt. supporters seems to have really shocked people too. It is more difficult to take the moral high ground when firing on unarmed govt. supporters....

Unless someone steps up to the role of mediator / arbitrator / moderator it is hard to see peace will be restored. People on both sides are being rather irrational and intransigent and definitely not acting in the national interest. The Thai students at school are bemused and frustrated that there is no talk of compromise. If they can see the need for a peaceful, negotiated solution I am not sure why it escapes the powers that be.... As far as I can see, the army are the only ones likely to step in.... I don't see anyone from the opposition party, business or other professional group assuming the role.

Hopefully both sides can be persuaded to put the country and the welfare of the people before their own personal gain and before the conflict escalates much further...I am not holding my breath.